The recovery of tourism will be in three phases

Sojern analysis based on searches and flight bookings up to January 2021. The recovery of the tourism sector in European markets, once the coronavirus health crisis is brought under control, will take place in three phases, according to an analysis based on flight searches during the last two weeks carried out by the digital marketSojern analysis based on searches and flight bookings up to January 2021

The recovery of the tourism sector in European markets, once the coronavirus health crisis is brought under control, will take place in three phases, according to an analysis based on flight searches during the last two weeks carried out by the digital marketing firm Sojern. This will see a recovery first in domestic travel, then in regional travel and finally in international long-distance travel.

“This crisis has undoubtedly impacted the travel industry beyond what anyone expected or predicted,” Sojern said as he presented the results of his analysis.

According to this company, “the industry will take some time to recover and it will also take time to regain consumer confidence.

“As a result, we expect the recovery to begin at the domestic level, with tourists choosing to travel close to home. This is certainly the case in European countries,” the firm adds.

Phase 1: domestic travel
Thus, taking as a reference the searches of flights made during the last two weeks to travel within the country itself, the rates of interannual variation each month are negative practically from now until December in the case of France, Germany, Italy, Spain and United Kingdom.

It is only from January 2021 onwards that these variations begin to rise in the case of France (+17%), Italy (+102%) and the United Kingdom (+60%).
In the case of Spain, flight searches made in the last two weeks for travel in January 2021 show a decline of 59%.

However, from these data it could also be interpreted that this summer, when the holiday period arrives, a large majority of Spanish tourists would choose to travel by car within the national territory, in order to have more flexibility and depend less on air transport.

This demand behaviour, however, would be particularly detrimental to the Balearic and Canary Islands. However, demand for travel to the Canary Islands could be revived from June onwards “especially in the case of the domestic market, although this would be somewhat gradual and would clearly not cover the usual demand in these months”, according to a report by Mabrian Technologies.

Phase 2: Travel in Europe
In a second phase, as consumer confidence recovered after the coronavirus health crisis and restrictions on movement were lifted, there would be a gradual increase in interest in travelling abroad, although not yet outside Europe.
In this sense, demand for travel in the UK to Spain, now paralysed by population confinement, would presumably take off from October, according to flight search data collected by Sojern.

This is how British tourists plan where and when they will travel again
In fact, at the moment we do not see an increase in flight searches for the summer period, as would be the norm at this time. As Sojern points out, “British travellers prefer to plan their next trip for later in the year”.

Phase 3: Long-range travel
After the recovery of domestic and regional travel, it would take longer for long-distance travel to pick up, according to Sojern.

In fact, flight bookings (not searches) made in the last 14 days for travel from other continents to Europe as far away as January 2021 show negative figures for all the destinations analyzed: France (-54%), Germany (-70%), Italy (-8%), Spain (-65%) and the United Kingdom (-34%).

In other words, no signs of recovery are yet in sight for long-distance travel to Europe in the next ten months.ing firm Sojern. This will see a recovery first in domestic travel, then in regional travel and finally in international long-distance travel. “This crisis has undoubtedly impacted the travel industry beyond what anyone expected or predicted,” Sojern said as he presented the results of his analysis.

According to this company, “the industry will take some time to recover and it will also take time to regain consumer confidence.

“As a result, we expect the recovery to begin at the domestic level, with tourists choosing to travel close to home. This is certainly the case in European countries,” the firm adds.

 

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